The global PC market experienced a nearly flat performance in 2023, but research firms Canalys and IDC are predicting a resurgence in 2024, driven by AI-enabled PCs. Despite a challenging year, the PC industry showed signs of resilience, with a stronger holiday season and inventory corrections supporting renewed sell-in.
2023 1s a challenging year for PC sales
In 2023, the global PC market faced headwinds, with total PC shipments totaling 247 million units, marking a 13% drop compared to the previous year. Canalys reported that shipments of notebooks managed to show a modest increase, reaching 51.6 million units, up 4% from 2022. In contrast, desktop shipments declined by 1%, landing at 13.7 million units.
Himani Mukka, research manager at Canalys, acknowledged the difficulties of 2023 but expressed cautious optimism. She highlighted that macroeconomic conditions were expected to improve, prompting companies and individuals who had delayed PC purchases to resume spending.
Signs of recovery in Q4 2023
Canalys and IDC both pointed to the fourth quarter of 2023 as a turning point. Canalys attributed the growth in Q4 PC shipments to a stronger holiday season and earlier inventory releases by vendors. Meanwhile, IDC noted that global shipments of traditional PCs slightly exceeded expectations in the same quarter, totaling nearly 67.1 million units, with a 2.7% decrease from the previous year. Importantly, both research firms mentioned that the declines seemed to have bottomed out following the surge in PC buying inspired by the COVID-19 pandemic.
AI as a key driver for PC sales growth
Looking ahead to 2024, both Canalys and IDC see AI-enabled PCs as a key driver of growth in the PC market. Canalys projects that one in five PCs shipped in 2024 will be AI-capable and include dedicated chipsets for on-device AI workloads. The adoption of AI in PCs is expected to ramp up quickly, particularly in commercial settings, where the benefits of on-device AI related to productivity, security, and cost management are significant considerations for businesses. Canalys forecasts that over 170 million AI-capable PCs will be shipped in 2024, with nearly 60% of them deployed in commercial settings.
Ryan Reith, group vice president of IDC’s Mobility and Consumer Device Trackers, emphasized the positive momentum for PCs in the coming year. He pointed out that while the market experienced declines in terms of shipments in 2023, 2024 is expected to be a strong year for commercial PC refresh. Additionally, advancements in gaming PCs are expected to continue driving excitement in the market.
Key players in the PC market
Both Canalys and IDC provided insights into the performance of key players in the PC market. In the fourth quarter of 2023, Lenovo emerged as the top PC vendor, followed by Hewlett-Packard, Dell, and Apple. These companies are likely to play a pivotal role in the industry’s recovery and growth in 2024.
As the PC market transitions from a challenging 2023, research firms Canalys and IDC anticipate a revival in 2024, driven by AI-enabled PCs and a rebound in commercial PC refresh cycles. The industry’s ability to adapt and innovate, along with improving macroeconomic conditions, is expected to propel PC sales growth in the coming year. Lenovo, Hewlett-Packard, Dell, and Apple are positioned as key players in this evolving landscape, aiming to capitalize on the renewed interest in PC technology.
